Oil Price Volatility Impacts Paraffin Industry, Candle Exporters Actively Respond to Cost Pressures

As international oil prices fluctuate unpredictably, the cost of paraffin wax—a primary material for cup candles—follows suit, forcing exporters to strike a balance between cost control and market competitiveness.

In the week ending September 12, 2025, international oil prices generally rose. The settlement price for Brent crude futures was $66.99 per barrel, up 2.27% from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $62.69 per barrel, a 1.33% increase.

The rise in oil prices was mainly driven by OPEC+ slowing its production increase pace, compensatory production cuts by several member countries, and geopolitical factors such as potential second-phase sanctions by the U.S. against Russia.

01 Oil Price Volatility Intensifies, Paraffin Market Under Pressure

Fluctuations in the international crude oil market directly impact paraffin prices. As a downstream petroleum product, paraffin wax prices are closely tied to international oil prices.

The crude oil market showed volatile trends in September. As of September 16, Brent crude reached $68.47 per barrel, up 2.81% over the past month.

Predictions from three major agencies regarding the crude oil market are divided. IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasts for global crude inventory changes in 2025 are +195.06, +171.83, and -53.06 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

This divergence in forecasts increases market uncertainty, making it difficult for paraffin producers to formulate long-term strategies.

02 Weak Demand Adds to Paraffin Market Challenges

The paraffin market is not only facing pressure on the cost side but also weak demand.

The global paraffin market continues to be under pressure, with lower raw material prices exacerbating bearish sentiment. Changes in international trade policies and geopolitical tensions have kept traders cautious.

Demand remains sluggish in major downstream industries such as candle manufacturing, packaging, and cosmetics due to weak consumption and economic pressures, further worsening the market downturn.

China’s paraffin market briefly stabilized in July but soon returned to a downward trend. According to SCI data, as of July 31, the average monthly price of domestic refineries’ mainstream paraffin model 58# was 7,778.5 yuan per ton, up 2.78% month-on-month and 2.09% year-on-year.

03 Export Market Faces Policy Barriers

The EU’s imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese candles has significantly impacted the industry.

Chinese candle exports to the EU account for 38%-44% of total exports, a substantial proportion, meaning policy changes have a considerable effect.

Sino-U.S. trade relations also affect paraffin exports. In April 2025, China and the U.S. imposed high tariffs on each other, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 145% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods at 125%, effectively closing Sino-U.S. import-export opportunities.

Although tariff negotiations saw phased easing in May, with both sides canceling reciprocal tariffs and reverting to a 10% tariff level, the joint statement’s mention of a 90-day suspension period suggests this may not be the final outcome.

04 Enterprises Adopt Multiple Strategies to Address Challenges

Facing cost pressures and weak market demand, cup candle producers are actively seeking countermeasures.

Material innovation has become a key focus. Qingdao Kingking Applied Chemistry Co., Ltd. has developed two national invention patents: “A Method for Preparing Scented Cup Candles” and “A Method for Preparing Emulsified Snow Wax.”

Among these, the 100% pure plant wax fragrance release technology completely breaks industry barriers, elevating the scent release efficiency of fragrant candles to internationally top-tier levels.

Research on alternative materials is also advancing. Clariant’s Licocare™ RBW Vita is an innovative bio-based rice bran wax additive extracted from rice bran oil byproducts, serving as a sustainable alternative to montan wax and synthetic wax widely used in plastics, coatings, and ink industries.

Zhejiang Dongke New Materials Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent for “A Method for Preparing Oxidatively Modified Polyethylene Wax Using Carbon Dioxide.” This technology not only aligns with “dual-carbon” policies but also effectively reduces production costs.

05 Future Outlook and Industry Trends

In the short term, the paraffin market outlook remains pessimistic. SCI predicts that the average monthly price of mainstream paraffin 58# will range between 7,700 and 7,790 yuan per ton in August and September.

The EU’s anti-dumping duties on Chinese candles, along with pressure on Chinese candle exporters, have prompted early efforts to strengthen expansion into Southeast Asian, African, and European markets, which may partially offset declining exports to Europe and the U.S.

In the medium to long term, technological innovation will be key to breaking through industry challenges. Qingdao Kingking’s R&D team has achieved nano-level dispersion of fragrances through ultra-high-speed shear emulsification and molecular interface recombination technology, constructing a fragrance-wax base interpenetrating network structure that increases sustained fragrance release efficiency by 250% compared to baseline values.

This technological innovation not only enhances product quality but also provides the industry with new pathways to move beyond price competition.

U.S. distillate inventories increased by 4 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 1 million barrels, raising concerns about demand prospects in the world’s largest oil-consuming country.

The EU’s anti-dumping duties on Chinese candles, coupled with uncertainty in Sino-U.S. trade relations, are prompting Chinese companies to accelerate expansion into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa.

Cup candle producers are exploring strategies like material innovation, process improvements, and market diversification to address current challenges.

Zhongya candle factory
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Email: Betty@kangdecandle.com